Every casino game is based on probability. Even if certain bets and promotions are under your control, the outcome of the game always depends to a certain extent on luck. It is how you calculate the probability, weigh the odds, and bet accordingly whether you win or lose over time.

“Probability” simply means how often a certain event will occur. If you flip a coin, the probability for heads is 50%. Drawing a ace of spades from a deck of cards for the first time has a probability of 1.9%. When you look at complex issues like certain hands in poker, these numbers quickly become astronomically large and extremely complex.

52 cards in a deck may not sound very impressive, but there are a huge number of card orders. More specifically, a deck can be 52! Sorts are sorted, ie 52 x 51 x 40 x 39 … down to 3 x 2 x 1. This results in an astronomical number, which is best expressed in scientific notation: more than 8 x 10 67 , or an 8 with 67 zeros , As explained in the video, there are so many options that after shuffling the cards, it is almost certain to encounter this particular card sequence for the first time since the beginning of the world.

It is not always easy to calculate the probability, so we did the preliminary work and answered some of the common questions about probability for four selected casino games. The next time you sit down at the table, think about the odds behind the game. You will be surprised how quickly you become a better player.

Blackjack – Am I busting myself with the next card?

Most blackjack hands are risky. Claiming (hit) at 12 is a small risk. Demanding at 16 is a big risk. Most players intuitively understand that the risk increases with the total score … but how big is the risk of busting yourself with the next card on a “dangerous hand” from 12 to 16?

Let’s take a look at the opportunities. (These chances are based on multiple sledges)

12 31%
13 38%
14 46%
15 54%
16 62%
The chances get worse after that, up to an astonishing 92% overbought chance if you call at 20. (Which of course you will never do, I know!)

Remember: A clever blackjack strategy takes into account the dealer’s face up cards. For example, if the dealer shows a 6 and you have 12, your risk of overbought when you hit (hit) is small, but you should still stand (stand) because the dealer is likely to overbought (bust) with an additional card. If you are a beginner, a standard cheat sheet will help you claim at the right moment and stop.

Roulette – How Many Times Can You Double?

Roulette is fairly easy to understand from a probability standpoint . Each spin of the roulette wheel is independent, so your chances (unlike craps) are not affected by the outcome of the preliminary round.

From a mathematical point of view, this randomness makes roulette a simple and entertaining game. Some of the most popular bets are one-on-one bets, of which there are several on the table. This includes even / odd, 1-18 / 19-36, and the popular red / black. A bet on either side doubles the bet if the ball falls into your selection.

The trick with roulette is an actual chance of winning a little less than 50%. This is due to the green 0 and usually a second 00 on the roulette wheel. 0 and 00 are not considered to be even / odd, red / black or high / low. If 0 or 00 you lose all one-to-one bets.

Let’s look at a hypothetical wheel with a single 0. You bet $ 100 on one of the one-to-one bets (the odds are the same for all 6 options) and wait for the game to exit. How long can you leave your chips on the table? Here are the chances of winning at certain times.

1 $ 200 48.6%
2 $ 400 23.7%
3 $ 800 11.5%
4 $ 1600 5.6%
5 $ 3200 2.7%
As you can see, the chances of winning five times in a row drop to an astronomical 2.7% – but with a nice win for a $ 100 bet.

How does the Extra 00 change things? You will be surprised.

0/00 RAD
1 $ 200 47.4%
2 $ 400 22.4%
3 $ 800 10.06%
4 $ 1600 5.0%
5 $ 3200 2.4%
This extra number reduces your chances of winning five consecutive times to just 2.4%.

Note: These chances are only correct before the first spin. If you have already won four times in a row, the past does not affect the outcome of the next round: your chances of winning on a 00 bike are again 47.4%

Chances of winning in craps

When craps a pair of dice is thrown and adds the values to score the “Point” is called. The point can be 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10. Simply put, the “shooter” rolls until one of these points appears. This is where the fun begins: the shooter must roll the dice until the point appears a second time. If the number is 7, the bet is lost.

How big is the chance to make your point, ie to roll the point number again before a 7 comes? The odds depend on the point, because some numbers appear less often than others. For example, there are five ways to roll a 6 with two dice (5: 1, 4: 2, 3: 3, 2: 4, 1: 5), but there are only three ways to roll a 4 (3: 1, 2 : 2, 1: 3).

Here is an overview of your chances of making your point depending on the number.

4 33%
5 40%
6 45%
8th 45%
9 40%
10 33%

Since 7 is the most likely number of points rolled on two dice, the house has a variable advantage every time you try to score. However, the closer you are to 7, the more likely you are to win.

When playing any casino game, it is important to have at least a basic understanding of the chances of your decisions. Some decisions seem to offer good opportunities, but in reality they are much less than you think, while others seem unlikely, although the actual chance is quite good. Every casino game is a math question, so the next time you have a good hand or “hot dice” do a quick calculation (or use an article like this) to maximize your chances of winning.

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